Forecasting study
Italy to 2030: macro growth, the coffee market & Lavazza’s position
A defended five-year forecast for a coffee roaster’s Italian strategy. Three nested questions, the economy, the category and the brand, each modelled and cross-validated against out-of-sample error, then stress-tested with explicit prediction intervals.
- 0.68% Italy real GDP, central path to 2030
- €3,075m Coffee market, 2030 (real value)
- 16.4% Lavazza value share, 2030
- €503m Lavazza Italy revenue, 2030
- 20,000 Monte-Carlo draws behind the revenue fan
- ±€70m The 90% revenue range at 2030, priced in money
Italy real GDP growth
A flat 0.68% central path: the post-2010 mean once the pandemic is stripped out, sitting inside the IMF, OECD, EU and Bank of Italy consensus.
Coffee market, real value
Damped-trend ETS on the log real series: about 1.2% a year as a maturing category decelerates.
Lavazza Italy revenue
20,000 Monte-Carlo draws combine market and share. Broadly flat near €500m, but share is the swing factor.
Method
- Rolling-origin cross-validation
- ETS · damped trend
- ARIMA
- Logit transform
- OLS income elasticity
- Monte-Carlo simulation
- 80 / 95% prediction intervals
- ADF · KPSS break diagnostics
Models were chosen by out-of-sample rolling-origin error, not in-sample fit: the forecast you can defend, not the one that flatters the history.
2030 scenario summary
| Measure | Low | Central | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy GDP growth | −1.6% | 0.68% | 3.0% |
| Coffee market (real) | €2,985m | €3,075m | €3,167m |
| Lavazza value share | 15.6% | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| Lavazza Italy revenue | €469m | €503m | €539m |